October 29, 2007

Now is the time to apply more Pressure, not less.

From the Chosin Ilbo: Bush Sends Tougher Message to N.Korea.

     U.S. President George W. Bush has warned North Korea against failure to fulfill its part of a six-nation agreement whereby it is to disable nuclear facilities by the end of the year. “There will be consequences to the North Koreans if North Korea renege on their promises,” Bush said in a press conference at the White House. “They have declared that they will show us weapons and get rid of the weapons programs, as well as stop proliferation … If they don't fulfill that which they've said, we are now in a position to make sure that they understand that there be consequences.”

     So the US continues to take the hard line with the North Koreans, while the Japanese have from a all pressure approach to one of pressure and dialog, with the hopes of making more progress than in the past.  From the Yomuiri Shimbum: Govt's new North Korea line: More carrots, less stick.

     Reflecting Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's intentions, the government increasingly has been focusing on dialogue in its diplomatic relations with North Korea," revealing a shift in the foreign policy line from that taken by the Abe administration, which favored pressuring the country.

     "If some of the abductees return to Japan, I think we can consider that to be 'progress' on the abduction issue," Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura told reporters Friday at the Diet.

     Suggesting that the government might lift sanctions on, or give aid to, North Korea in phases, Komura said: "We may take measures in accordance with the [degree of] progress. That's a matter of course when it comes to improving relations with North Korea."

     Aiming at the return of all abductees, the Cabinet of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe repeatedly emphasized that it would never provide assistance to North Korea without progress on the abduction issue, while avoiding clarifying how it defined "progress." Abe said, "It's us who decide the definition of 'progress,'" and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki said, "We don't think we can call it 'progress' if North Korea merely promises to continue its investigation into the issue and offer [any] information."

     I am aware of the apparent progress of the six party talks, but I remain very wary of North Korea, they have decieved in the past nad may yet do so agian.  Witht he reports filtering out about their involvement with the Syrian nuclear program we should not let up one bit, but rather tighten the sanctions untill we have the full and toatl truth.  The economic and military impact of the various embargoes against North Korea are working as this valuable tidbit from the China Post shows: North Korea stops spy flights due to fuel shortage.

     SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea has suspended flight training for military aircraft aimed at infiltrating special operation forces in rival South Korea because of fuel shortages, a news report said Sunday.

     Yonhap news agency, quoting unidentified government and military sources, said the impoverished country's military has had to halt training flights of the Soviet-designed AN-2 planes as the fuel shortages have been worsened by soaring oil prices.

     "We found (North Korea) is diverting fuel oil for AN-2 planes to training of other aircraft, and that is why their flights have been suspended for a long time," Yonhap quoted a South Korean government official privy to North Korean affairs as saying.

     Of course US efforts aren't helped by the pussyfooting at the State Department, which as always wants to talk about thing forever and a day without getting anywhere nearer to a solution. The dust up between State and everyone else over the Nork's involvement with the Syrian nuke program is case in point. From the Chosin Ilbo: U.S. Leaders at Odds over N.Korea-Syria Nuke Connection.

     Suspicions over a nuclear connection between North Korea and Syria are dividing the Bush administration in the U.S., the New York Times reported Saturday. "A dispute has broken out between conservatives and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice over the administration’s pursuit of diplomacy with North Korea in the face of intelligence that North Korea might have helped Syria design a nuclear reactor," the daily said.

     In recent days, Vice President Dick Cheney has reportedly urged Rice to reconsider her North Korea policy, pointing to the rumor. Rice reportedly countered this by saying that President George W. Bush was briefed on the intelligence and issued a statement in support of talks with Pyongyang early this month.

     If we continue to pressure North Korea we can force them to put all their cards on the table, because they know that it is their best interests to do so.  If they continue down the nuclear path and help others to do so things might get a bit, kinetic as it were.  And in that case they would loose, so it is better to give it up and avoid the alternative.

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