I have advanced this same line myself here, but a realistic assesment of the situation and China's past actions lead me to believe that they will continue to run interference for their loyal vassal.  I would not be surprised to learn that the orders to put down these demonstartions came from Beijing rather than Yangon.  From the Japan Times: The road to Myanmar passes through Beijing

     NEW YORK — Three hard facts set the boundaries for the talks that United Nations negotiator Ibrahim Gambari is undertaking as he shuttles between Myanmar's ruling generals and the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

     First, despite the heroic leadership of the Buddhist clergy and the prodemocracy community, almost 50 years of military misrule and terror tactics have worn down Myanmar's people, who will likely find it hard to maintain their defiance unless there are obvious splits among the ruling generals or widespread desertions among ordinary soldiers.

     Second, Myanmar's generals know that they face a stark choice: Either maintain power or risk imprisonment, exile, and possible death. In their eyes, this leaves them with virtually no choice but to hold on to power at all costs.

     Finally, as long as China provides political, financial and military support for Myanmar's rulers, it will be all but impossible for any meaningful change to occur. Until China decides that it has more to gain from a more legitimate government in Myanmar than it does from the current incompetent military regime, little can happen.

     China's decision to block the U.N. Security Council from condemning the Myanmar regime's assault on the Buddhist monks and other peaceful protesters last week underscores its long-standing political support for the junta.

     Another side effect of the crack down in Burma has been a total dearth of news that I have to believe is being managed by someone with way more political skill and savy than is to be found in the Burmese government.  China will only reign in Burma if it is their best interests to do so.  Unless the west severely punishes China and the Chinese economy they will continue to sit in their hands locally and globally continue to protect the Burmese from international meddling, as they see it, in an internal matter.

Posted by: raging tachikoma at 08:03 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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